[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050708
SWODY2
SPC AC 050708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CRP 60 WSW COT ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 20 ENE SJT 50 NE ABI 15 WNW ADM
25 WSW MKO 20 SSE UMN 40 SE VIH 20 WSW SLO 40 SSE MTO BMG 50 W LUK
20 N LEX 20 WSW LOZ 15 NE CHA 40 NW AUO 10 NE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 45 SE LBB
20 ENE END 15 N SZL 15 SSE PIA 25 SSW SBN 20 NE TOL ...CONT... 10 NW
CLE 10 S CAK 35 SW HLG 35 SSE PKB 40 ENE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 20 W AHN 45
S CSG PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE
MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA COAST CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
MONDAY AND INTO THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEPENING OF CNTRL PLAINS LEE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


...CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX...LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
RUNS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF
TX.

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SHIFTING TO SLY OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF AS
SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE
PLAINS. SLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
SERN U.S. SUNDAY...ALLOWING MODIFYING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MUCH
WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER NWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.

ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FROM PARTS OF TX INTO OK
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD.
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED AS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SPREADS EWD INTO
THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE ONCE ACTIVITY BECOMES SURFACE BASED.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LINEAR
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
AS IT CONTINUES EWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OH VALLEY MAY BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 12/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.