[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041628
SWODY2
SPC AC 041627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 25 SSE DRT
...CONT... 25 WSW ELP 50 ENE ROW 40 NW CDS 30 SW END 25 NW BVO 10 NE
FLV 25 S OTM 35 NE PIA 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND
35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL
10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST
BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD NEAR 42N/130W. THE FORMER IS FORECAST
TO OPEN AND DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD FROM OFF THE CA COAST
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH
SUBSEQUENT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

...UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING LEAD DISTURBANCE. INCREASING SLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE NWD
ADVECTION OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH LOWER TO MID 60 F DEWPOINTS
AS FAR N AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ALONG SRN EDGE OF BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA WHERE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO.

...WRN TX...
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
IN ADVANCE OF STRONG...UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ATTM...CONSEQUENTLY PRECLUDING ANY
PROBABILITIES.

..MEAD.. 12/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.