[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040818
SWODY2
SPC AC 040817

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL
10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 E COT
45 WSW HDO 50 SW JCT 30 SSE SJT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 10 SW LTS 35 ENE
GAG 25 W HUT 25 SSE CNK 30 NNE FNB 10 ENE OTM 25 SW MMO 30 NNE IND
50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOW FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS BY
SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS
VALLEY AND GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE NRN
GULF WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFYING
GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO
BEGIN RETURNING INTO SRN AND ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS FROM PARTS OF OK INTO ERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF
THE MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP.

FARTHER W AND N ACROSS ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX...PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING
NEWD INTO TX ABOVE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESULTING
DESTABILIZATION. ADVECTION OF THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE CIRRUS PLUME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
TX. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE RESULTING ASCENT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAKEN
THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO PARTS
OF N TX. SRN EXTENT OF INITIATION INTO TX MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGER
CAP. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL.

..DIAL.. 12/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.