[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271744
SWODY2
SPC AC 271741

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
ROC 25 SW BFD 20 NNE PKB 20 WNW LEX 30 WSW EVV 40 SSE SPI 35 ESE CGX
70 N MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW
GDP 40 NW GDP 25 N HOB 25 NW BGS 30 WNW SJT 70 SW SJT 25 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DMN 45 SSE FMN
55 WNW COS 15 SW RWL 30 WNW PIH 45 N BKE 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 50 W
RRT 10 NE MBG 30 SW RAP 30 WNW SNY 25 WNW EHA 30 NNE PVW 30 W LTS 25
SE END 55 SW SZL 20 NE IRK 35 S OSH 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 35 NNE HYA
15 S POU CXY 40 WSW SHD 35 S PSK 40 ENE CLT 10 NNW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST AREA TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT FALLS...ALTHOUGH WEAK...ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY TO SRN
PLAINS.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/FLOW PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE BC
COAST/ PHASES WITH TROUGH OVER NRN CANADA AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS ON DAY 2.

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ERN QUEBEC/LOWER GREAT
LAKES SWWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IL TO CENTRAL OK AND WEST
CENTRAL TX WILL ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH.  THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH FAR NWRN OH TO CENTRAL AR AND CENTRAL TX
BY 00Z.  A SURFACE WAVE LOCATED OVER NRN IL AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL
MOVE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT TO FAR NWRN OH BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN CO AND AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO MID MS
VALLEY/OZARKS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF 130-140 KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2 ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF AT LEAST TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY THE 27/09Z ETAKF...THAT ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF
LOWER OH VALLEY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5
C/KM/. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD
RESULT IN NEW STORMS FROM SERN MO TO NWRN IND/SRN LOWER MI.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE
FRONT.

AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/
OH VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING STABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT.

...SW TX...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SWRN TX...WITH ENELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
IN ITS WAKE ADVECTING LOWER-MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THIS
REGION.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM SERN NM INTO
SWRN TX.  DESPITE MODEST NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KT/...ENELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODERATE /40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONG UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC.
HOWEVER...MEAN WLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK ALONG ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DROPPING S INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ME/NH/VT.  COUPLED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.

..PETERS.. 08/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.