[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250648
SWODY2
SPC AC 250646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTW JVL
ALO MCW MSP 55 SW IWD IMT MTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
MBS SBN JEF 30 ESE OJC P35 DSM OTG AXN 35 NNW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E GPT JAN MEM HRO
MKO PNC TOP 55 WNW DSM FSD PHP RIW MLD 4LW 65 NNE MFR PDX SEA 20 NW
BLI ...CONT... 10 ENE ROC PIT CRW GSO RWI 25 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...AND MUCH OF WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
 APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND EJECT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON DAY2.

...NORTHERN IA/EASTERN MN/WI/MI...
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MN/CENTRAL IA. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM THE
FRONTAL BULGE INTO EASTERN KS. QUALITY OF AIRMASS EAST OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.  HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG.  INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
IA/EASTERN MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS REGION SHOW VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM SHEAR
OF 50-60 KNOTS AND 1KM HELICITY OVER 250 M2/S2/ FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND EVENTUALLY INTO UPPER/LOWER
MI.  

...SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO...
A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF DRYLINE
OVER THIS REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG AND A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION.  WEAKER UPPER
DYNAMICS IN THIS REGION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THREAT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS SMALL.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY1
CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH DRYLINE AND RESULT IN ISOLATED CELLS. 
ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA WOULD HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 08/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.