[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241715
SWODY2
SPC AC 241712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
RRT BRD MSP MSN BMI 15 NW STL TBN 30 SSW JLN 25 W BVO 25 SSW ICT 10
NNE SLN 30 N EAR 25 S 9V9 25 SSW BIS 70 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ROC MGW 40 NNW
GSO 30 WSW GSB 45 E EWN ...CONT... 45 SSW HOU 45 SE LFK 35 SSW MLU
10 SE ELD TXK JCT 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 ESE ELP 35 SSW HOB 15 WNW
CDS 15 NNE P28 35 SSE RSL 30 SSE HLC 10 WNW GLD 25 SE DEN 50 SSW CAG
35 SSE EVW 45 NNW ENV 40 WSW WMC 50 SSE LMT 10 NW OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MS VALLEY REGION...

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE
WILL ALLOW AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
INTO ERN KS/MO WHERE IT SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LATE DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SFC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO...WNWWD INTO NRN KS WHERE IT'S EXPECTED
TO INTERSECT A SLOWLY ADVANCING DRYLINE.  INCREASED WLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW SHOULD FORCE THE DRYLINE A BIT FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
SFC HEATING ENHANCES MIXING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE IN HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH EXTREME BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST...4000-5000
J/KG SBCAPE...LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ROOT INTO VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LIKELY. 
VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...AT LEAST THROUGH MID
EVENING BEFORE CLUSTERING AND MCS EVOLUTION OCCURS OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO LATE.

...NRN PLAINS...

EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A MORE FOCUSED LLJ SHOULD AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.  LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.