[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240726
SWODY2
SPC AC 240724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
RRT BRD MSP MSN BMI STL JLN EMP GRI MHE JMS 65 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BVE JAN TXK JCT
15 NW DRT ...CONT... ELP HOB LTS PNC RSL LBF SNY DEN EGE RKS MLD OWY
LMT 10 NW OTH ...CONT... ROC MGW DAN GSB HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG FROM MO/KS INTO MN/ND.  

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/SD ALONG COLD FRONT...WITH
ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  

FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP
THAN FARTHER NORTH...BUT STRONG HEATING WEST OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LESS THAN IN THE DAKOTAS...SHEAR/CAPE
COMBINATIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/MO AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN IL.

..HART.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.