[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231705
SWODY2
SPC AC 231702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DLH
EAU 25 SSW LNR 25 E MLI UIN 35 NNE SZL 30 NE BVO P28 60 SW HLC 20
ESE LIC 30 ESE FCL 35 WSW BFF 45 W VTN 10 SSW HON 30 W AXN 40 SW HIB
DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW HVR GTF SHR 35
WNW PHP 15 NNW ABR 70 NNW TVF ...CONT... 25 ENE CLE 30 N PKB BKW 35
SSW GSO CRE ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 30 NW CLL 50 NE ACT 15
ENE SEP 50 ENE SJT 30 ENE BGS 40 NE PVW 40 ESE LBL 35 WSW GCK 50 SSW
LAA 30 SW TCC ROW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 50 WSW GCN 15 S BCE
10 NW MLF 55 NW DRA 35 NW BIH 25 W RNO 20 SSE BNO 25 SSE PDT 10 SE
EAT 15 SE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...PLAINS...

UNUSUAL LATE AUG PATTERN WILL MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE LATE SPRING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK.  BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE WITH EPISODIC SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS WILL ENSURE LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
MORE E-W VARIABILITY WILL BE NOTED DUE TO TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCES.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG VEERING...AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  MOST LIKELY REGION OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WITHIN WEAK
UPSLOPE REGION WHERE MINIMAL INHIBITION WILL EXIST.  ANOTHER ZONE OF
POSSIBLE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER NRN KS ALONG
E-W BOUNDARY.  IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT EVOLVES AND
SPREADS EWD ACROSS PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  INCREASING LLJ INTO SERN NEB/NRN MO WILL
PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO
THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD QUICKLY INTO
MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  FORCING WILL GRADUALLY
WANE SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MN WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 08/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.