[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230723
SWODY2
SPC AC 230720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
DLH 30 WNW EAU 30 E ALO 30 N SZL 30 NNE BVO P28 HLC BBW 35 SW MHE 45
S FAR 50 WNW HIB 20 SSW DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI CAK PKB
GSO 15 S ILM ...CONT... 10 SE 7R4 LFK BWD 65 NW ABI CDS DDC GLD LHX
ROW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 65 SW TUS INW U17 DPG BOI PUW 10 NW BLI
...CONT... 65 WNW HVR GTF SHR PHP ABR 40 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF
MN/WI...

...NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
BROADEN ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS.  A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. 
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE DUE TO UNKNOWN DURATION/EXTENT OF DAY1 CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SD/EASTERN NEB/WESTERN MN/WESTERN IA ON DAY2.  SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WITH
THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. 
OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG FRONT OVER
NORTHERN MN...AND OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN WI/EASTERN
IA.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM LOW NORTHWARD INTO NEB/SD WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. 
HOWEVER...SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION INTO OK AND
NORTHWEST TX IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT PIECE OF
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY2.  THIS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS.  IF SO...PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..HART.. 08/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.