[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
INL BRD 20 ENE SPW 20 SSW EMP 10 NW PNC 45 WSW END 45 E LBL 25 SSW
MCK 15 ENE PHP 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU
25 SE OSH 30 NE GRR 40 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S HUL PSF AVP PIT 20
NNW ZZV 25 WNW UNI 35 W HTS 20 SSE 5I3 SOP 15 E EWN ...CONT... 50
SSE DRT 35 SSE BWD MWL 45 WSW SPS 20 NNW CDS 55 ESE LAA 25 SW SNY
LAR 25 S VEL 15 WNW 4BL 30 SW DUG ...CONT... 15 E CZZ 45 SSE LAS 45
S P38 60 SSE ELY 40 SSE EKO 15 NW NFL 50 W RNO 40 S RBL 45 W RBL 10
WSW CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO
PARTS OF KS AND OK...

...NRN PLAINS/NEB...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO S-CNTRL CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD
FROM SRN INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN PRIOR TO OCCLUDING. MEANWHILE...A
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NERN WY/WRN
SD DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO CNTRL SD BY EARLY
EVENING. ALSO AT THIS TIME...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CNTRL ND THROUGH THIS LOW SWWD INTO SRN WY...WHILE WARM FRONT
STRETCHES SEWD FROM LOW THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NRN IL. FINALLY...LEE
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY SWD THROUGH THE NEB SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS.

NOCTURNAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN
MT/WRN AND CNTRL DAKOTAS LARGELY N OF WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG 40-50KT SLY LLJ. WITH NWD RETREAT
OF WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ACROSS EXPANDING WARM
SECTOR FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB NWD INTO CNTRL SD WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON
FROM WRN/CNTRL SD SWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
/ESPECIALLY THOSE E OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG WARM FRONT/ SUGGEST
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
EXIST NEAR SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER
SHEAR AND LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE CO-LOCATED.

STORMS SHOULD TEND TO COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS WHILE SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN MONDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT SUGGEST AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...KS/OK...
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE/MIX EWD
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS/TX PNHDL. TO THE E...MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
REMAIN N OF REGION...STRONG HEATING/CONVERGENCE INVOF TROUGH AND
INCREASING ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK
APPROACHING FROM SRN ROCKIES MAY AID IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL AND
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF TROUGH/DRYLINE INDICATE FAVORABLE
VEERING PROFILES WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2. THOUGH
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
/AOB 25KTS/ STRENGTHENING FLOW IN THE 8-10KM LAYER /ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRENGTHENING
BRANCH OF LLJ ACROSS WRN TX/OK INTO SRN KS MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND
RESULTANT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

..MEAD.. 08/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.