[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220737
SWODY2
SPC AC 220735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
INL BRD 20 ENE SPW 20 NW OMA 10 SSW GRI 30 S BBW 20 WSW ANW PIR 35
ENE BIS 65 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 45 SSE BWD
DAL DUA 30 NNE OKC GCK SNY LAR 45 ENE CAG 10 SE MTJ 15 SW DUG
...CONT... 20 S YUM IGM SGU 60 SSE ELY 60 SW ELY 60 SE TVL 40 NE SCK
35 N RBL 35 E PDX 35 E BLI ...CONT... 25 S HUL PSF AVP PIT CMH LUK
10 NNW LEX LOZ FLO 10 SSE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN
MN...

...NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN...
MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
TOMORROW AS BAND OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SERN MT/NERN
WY INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN OVER ERN SD
AND WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD FROM IA INTO SRN MN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD INTO ERN ND BY AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL ERN/NEB INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON.  DURING THE AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SD WITHIN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE
NEAR THE SD SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
LARGER MLCAPE (2500-3000 J/KG) IS PREDICTED.  MOST FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS AND NWRN MN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT...SUGGESTING MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT OVER ERN SD INTO SERN ND.  THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO
PARTS OF WRN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL MN...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z.

..WEISS.. 08/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.