[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181739
SWODY2
SPC AC 181738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
BWD 40 SSW SJT 50 ENE FST 30 WSW MAF 45 ENE HOB 10 NW LBB 35 ENE PVW
30 W SPS 20 NNW MWL 15 SSE SEP 55 SSE BWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
JFK 25 SSW CXY 25 W MGW CMH 15 S MFD 15 WSW YNG 20 SE BGM 10 ESE LEB
30 WSW AUG 25 SSE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CTY 40 N SAV
10 NE CAE 15 ESE AVL 35 NE TYS 35 WNW JKL 50 WNW SDF 35 W MDH 35 NNW
ARG 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 55 NW LRD
...CONT... 75 SSW P07 15 NNE ELP 30 N DUG 20 WNW PHX 25 E LAS 40 E
NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 60 NE MFR 55 W YKM 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 55
ENE CTB 20 N SHR 45 NE DGW 15 W AIA 20 WSW MCK 25 S HSI 35 N OTM 20
NW AZO 50 NNE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WEST TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING AND DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT
BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM NJ WWD TO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A REINFORCING MASS OF UNUSUALLY COLD AIR
TO THE NRN BORDER STATES.

FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FIRST FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO BROAD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ZONE OF
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/TX PNHDL ENEWD TO
MO. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AGGREGATE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM
NUMEROUS SRN AND MIDDLE STREAM IMPULSES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN SUBTLE WAYS WITH THIS
SYSTEM... MODEST TO STRONG SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD UPWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS.

...OH/PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTION ALONG THE SHARP BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY SHALLOW MAUL LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW
BAND OF FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION. BROKEN SQUALL LINE COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW WELL-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CANADA WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE...SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG THE
FRONT. AIRMASS ACROSS WRN PA TO ERN OH WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PERSISTS.

...WEST TX...
MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NWD ACROSS
WEST TX. STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD
MOTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
SURGES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE PNHDL...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE
LIKELY. FCST WIND PROFILES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS BUT POCKETS OF GREATER SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE AS WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH EVENING. EXPECT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH ATTENDANT
HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

..CARBIN.. 08/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.