[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180727
SWODY2
SPC AC 180726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
ACY 30 S CXY 20 SSW IPT 35 SSE UCA 20 ESE GFL 20 ESE EEN GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N HVR 40 NNE GCC
40 SSW PIR 35 SSW 9V9 30 SSW ANW 15 WNW AKO 15 ESE GLD 35 WSW FNB 25
SSW BRL 45 S CGX 30 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DMN 35 SSE SAD
45 WSW PRC 60 NE NID 45 NE SAC 45 NNE LMT 25 NE DLS 50 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ABY 20 NNW GSP
25 S 5I3 30 E LEX 30 N PAH JBR 40 W GLH 35 SSW JAN 35 NNW PNS 25 NE
ABY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AND WILL MAINTAIN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WRN
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT.  IN
ADDITION...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF THE
SRN ROCKIES AND FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

...MID ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
FORECAST OF RATHER STRONG HEATING /85-90F SFC TEMPS/ WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  THEREFORE...AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPES AS FAR NORTHEAST
AS ERN NEW YORK...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. 
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NY/PA AND CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE
COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  COMBINATION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY AID IN ORGANIZING
CONVECTION INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES.  THOUGH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ LEVELS ABOVE 11 KFT WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE...WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR A SLIGHT RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO
ONE OR MORE MCSS OVER THIS AREA DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM.  DESPITE THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN
BRIEF-LIVED GUSTS/HAIL AROUND SEVERE LIMITS.

SAME GOES FOR THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS
AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT.

..EVANS.. 08/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.