[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190728
SWODY2
SPC AC 190726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 20 SW FST 40 WNW HOB 45 SE CVS 35 WNW ABI 30 NW TPL 20 NE AUS 15
ESE SAT 15 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 45 NNE BIL
25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 30 SW MHN 25 E IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 35 NNE
CDS 30 SSW OKC 25 WNW TUL 30 S EMP 25 SSE FNB 20 WSW OTM 15 NNW CGX
65 SE OSC ...CONT... 60 WNW 3B1 10 SW BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW
LRD ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 30 NNE ELP 85 WNW TCS 25 NW PRC 40 NNW NID
45 SSE TVL 40 SSW 4LW 45 W PDT 40 NNW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN INTO CENTRAL TX...

...SWRN TX...
OVERALL SETUP FOR SWRN TX IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY REGARDING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS AREA REMAINS WITHIN MODERATE WNWLY FLOW
IN WAKE OF SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  ETA AND GFS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING FROM SERN OK/AR SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SWRN TX
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL AFFECT
LOCATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SWRN TX INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE
COLLOCATION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR.  SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONGER AS WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADS DEEP ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS... SUGGESTING STRONGER
STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. 
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

...ERN TX INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLANTIC...
SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/ERN
TX INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. 
WEAKER LAPSE RATES/SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
OVER THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATE DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS.. 08/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.