[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171735
SWODY2
SPC AC 171734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
TOL 30 NNW DNV 15 NNE IRK 45 ESE OMA 60 NNE OMA 10 SE MKT 30 S IWD
20 NNW MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 25 WSW MCN
45 W CAE CLT 30 NNE AVL 20 S TYS 45 ENE HSV 15 WSW MSL 35 SSE MKL 30
SSW DYR 40 SSE CGI 15 SSW OWB 20 N SDF 10 SE IND 30 NW HUF 40 NW STL
45 S SZL 15 NE BVO 50 S PNC 40 NNE MWL 25 NNW ACT 15 SSE TPL 45 SSE
CLL 30 ENE GLS ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 20 ENE PHX 35 NNE IGM 45 NE DRA
60 ESE BIH 30 SW BIH 55 NE MER 60 SSW SVE 15 ESE MHS 10 S LMT 25 E
4LW 50 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT...
30 N CTB 45 W LWT 40 SE SHR 40 NNW CDR 55 N ATY 30 SE FAR 10 WNW
RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTER...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OVER NRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT AND RESULT IN ESTABLISHING STRONG CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A STRONG POLAR FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE
SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS REMNANTS OF GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW MOVE EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRECEEDING THE
POLAR FRONT...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...IA TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL/PREFRONTAL
FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM IA TO WI BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...
STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND LINEAR
FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
INCREASINGLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RAPID TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A FAST MOVING LINE WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS FROM IA/WI AREAS EAST INTO NRN IL
AND ACROSS MUCH OF MI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IF IT APPEARS THAT
STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PARTS OF
THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...CNTRL/HIGH PLAINS...
FRONTAL SURGE WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE
OF CO...AND BISECT KS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BY EVENING.
FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY
CAPPED AND MODESTLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS. WHILE A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION...THE BULK OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

...MID ATLANTIC...
WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. WHILE A FEW PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
WEAKENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION 
SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..CARBIN.. 08/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.