[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170726
SWODY2
SPC AC 170724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
MCW 25 NW GRB 20 E TVC 30 NNE LAN 45 NE LAF 25 SE TOP 35 WSW BIE 30
ESE OLU 25 WNW MCW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35
W DCA 40 SW IPT 15 ENE BGM 40 NNW POU 10 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DHN 10 NE MCN
40 NW AND 10 WNW BLF 15 ESE HTS 15 SSW LEX 15 NW PAH 10 NNW JLN 35 S
PNC 10 SSE FSI 30 NNW CLL 40 WNW GPT 10 SE DHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FHU 35 NE PHX 45
SW P38 15 WNW LOL 30 NNE LMT 20 W DLS 55 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 10 NNE LWT
15 WSW SHR 35 SSE RAP 55 E ATY 30 NE AXN 70 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO ERN PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE DAY 2
PERIOD...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE HUDSON
BAY AND LARGE UPPER RIDGE ERODES OVER THE WRN STATES.  NET RESULT
WILL BE BROAD WNWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING EWD.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF
WHICH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE.

...GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE NRN MS AND MID MO RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  NRN MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND
LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTHWEST
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT /MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES/ AS STORMS INITIATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OR NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS.  A FEW
TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN SHAPE OF HODOGRAPHS AND
STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL/ERN IA
WHERE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AS EXPECTED
IN WAKE OF ANY EARLIER CONVECTION.  FARTHER SOUTHWEST...ETA AND
ETAKF SUGGEST ENTIRE FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO ERN CO BECOMES
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EXPECTED
INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WILL OPT TO FORECAST ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SERN NY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...AS SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE /I.E. 25-35 KT FROM
0-6 KM/...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL LINES OR SUPERCELLS. 
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS.. 08/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.