[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
STL 25 NNW TBN 25 S SZL 30 WSW SZL 35 E MKC 30 SSW IRK 40 ENE IRK 25
ESE CID 15 WNW DBQ 15 W MSN 35 WNW MKE 45 ESE MKE 20 NNW AZO 30 S
AZO 45 NNE LAF 25 SE DNV 40 S MTO 60 SSW STL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
DGW CDR 20 ENE VTN 55 NNE BUB 20 NE BUB 10 ESE BBW 25 SE LBF 10 W
IML 10 NNE AKO 40 NE DEN 25 WSW CYS 40 ESE DGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E 7R4 45 NNW PNS
30 E GAD 35 W SHD 25 SE PSB 15 WNW ELM 15 W UCA 30 N POU 15 W ISP
...CONT... 55 N ROC BUF 20 NE CLE 15 ESE BWG 30 ESE PAH 30 N POF 30
SW JLN 45 N DDC 40 W EHA 45 ESE TCC 10 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SW GBN
25 NE BLH 30 WNW BIH 40 S SVE 50 SSE RDM 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 70 NW
FCA 35 E HLN 60 N SHR 45 SSW REJ 15 NNW PHP 10 W BKX 20 W MKT 30 WNW
LSE 30 SE CWA 25 NW ESC 115 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 125 NNE CMX 65 WNW
CMX 15 S HIB 45 WSW BJI 50 SW GFK 50 W DVL 55 NNW MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID WEST
FROM MO TO IL/NWRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
WRN WY/NERN CO AND WRN NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN
STATES ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER NCNTRL
CANADA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL MAINTAIN AN
AXIS OF ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT FROM IA/MO NEWD TO MI. THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
AND INTERSECT LEE TROUGH INVOF WRN NEB/ERN WY. WELL DEFINED UPPER
VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

...MIDWEST...
A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN
WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN IA/MO TO MI. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WITH MLCAPE
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE CORN BELT. WHILE
OVERALL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT COUPLED WITH WEAK CAP SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT
ATOP WEAKER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. A FEW
LINES/BANDS OF STORMS WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

STORM INITIATION ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO MO IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING...BUT STRONGER
INSTABILITY THIS AREA...INDICATES A CHANCE OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING UPPER
WAVE...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
EAST TO THE PLAINS. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD BE
FOCUSED NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN WY INTO NEB
PNHDL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL MCS BY LATE EVENING AND DEVELOP
EAST ACROSS NEB WITH INFLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LLJ.

..CARBIN.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.