[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160719
SWODY2
SPC AC 160718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
VIH 45 ENE CNU 25 SSW FLV 40 ENE IRK 45 ESE DBQ 40 NNW CGX 10 W SBN
10 N IND 40 S HUF 55 SE VIH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
CYS 65 WNW CDR 50 SSW PHP 40 SSW ANW 25 ESE LBF 40 SSE AKO 20 ENE
DEN 35 NNE CYS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB 20 NNW LGC
40 WSW CSV 35 SE POF 30 SW JLN 15 NW END 65 ENE AMA 40 NNW BGS 15
SSW P07 ...CONT... 60 SSW GBN 25 NE BLH 30 WNW BIH 40 S SVE 50 SSE
RDM 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 100 NW FCA 45 NE MSO 25 ENE LVM 35 SW 4BQ
10 N PHP 15 NNW FSD 30 SSW STC 30 ESE BJI 35 W GFK 55 NNW MOT
...CONT... 50 W ART 20 ESE ERI 20 NNW LBE 30 ESE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S...WITH A SERIES OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS SHIFTING ESEWD AWAY FROM WRN U.S. RIDGE AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID WEST MONDAY.  SEVERAL OTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE ROCKIES AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY
EWD. AT THE SURFACE ...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
WRN END OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN A NWWD ORIENTATION INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN IN THE LOW
LEVELS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SUGGESTING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.

...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT
HEATING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES FOR MODERATE MLCAPES BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT.  IN ADDITION...ASCENT
WILL BE AIDED BY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINES WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT INTO NERN CO/WRN
NEB/SERN WY.  APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR MARGINAL TO MODERATE MLCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED/ELEVATED AND SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AS AIR MASS
DECOUPLES AND SLY LLJ INCREASES DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. 
LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY OVER THIS
REGION.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
APPEARS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FOCUS VIGOROUS CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR BRIEF-LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

..EVANS.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.