[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141737
SWODY2
SPC AC 141736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT 40 E FAR 20 S RWF 30 E OMA 15 SSE CNK 35 WNW GCK 10 NE PUB FCL
30 E CDR 55 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 70 NW GBN
35 S BIH 15 SW RNO 60 SE EUG 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 NW CTB 30 SSE
LVM 45 NW RWL 45 NNE LAR 25 SW RAP 35 ESE DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 90
N CMX 35 NNW VOK 25 NNE IRK 25 NNE JLN 15 WSW DUA 15 WNW BWD 45 ESE
P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE TLH 30 E GAD
25 SSE LEX 15 E FWA 25 ENE MBS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WRN STATES. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH
THIS PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
CHARLEY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.



...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS-WRN PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NW SD AND NE WY. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD...WRN NEB
AND NE CO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE BOUNDARIES...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH A STRONGER
SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE INCREASING SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR S AS
TX WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS REMAINING CONFINED TO S TX. THIS SUGGESTS
AT BEST...MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE NRN
PLAINS BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP
EWD DURING THE DAY ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL
AS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE NWLY
MID-UPPER FLOW ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE
THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.


...NEW ENGLAND...

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EXTRA TROPICAL AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CHARLIE AS IT CONTINUES
NWD. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND STABLE ONSHORE FLOW.


...SERN U.S....

SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS...OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FLOW  WILL EXIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 08/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.