[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150650
SWODY2
SPC AC 150649

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CZZ 30 ESE DAG
25 SSE BIH 10 WNW TVL 35 ESE LMT 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NNE FCA 40
W 3HT 35 WNW REJ 40 SSW ABR 55 WSW AXN 10 E RRT ...CONT... 40 NNE
MTC 20 SSW MDH 30 WNW LIT 55 NE ABI 35 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE AQQ TOI 25 W
RMG 50 NW HSS 35 W EKN 25 S ROC 35 NNW GFL 15 WSW PWM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS BROADENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE 
EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN WAKE OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

...WRN GREAT LAKES/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A MCS OVER THIS REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE
WEAKENING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THOUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA...EFFECTS OF MORNING CONVECTION RAISE TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO
WARRANT SLIGHT RISK ATTM.  AIR MASS MIGHT BE TOO STABILIZED TO
SUPPORT RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
PRIMARY SURFACE WIND SHIFT...AS INDICATED BY ETA WHICH DEVELOPS NO
QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP FORECAST OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
ELEVATED MCS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT. THOUGH SHEAR IS
MARGINAL...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND AS THEY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR DEVELOP NEAR
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

..EVANS.. 08/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.