[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140711
SWODY2
SPC AC 140710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
RRT 60 ENE STC 25 E FRM 20 SSW HSI 30 SSE LIC 40 E FCL 45 NW MBG 70
NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB 30 SSE LVM
45 NW RWL 45 NNE LAR 45 NNW CDR 35 N DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 40 NW
CMX 30 NW LSE 30 NNE STJ 10 NW BVO 30 NNE ADM 30 N DAL 30 SSW BWD 30
SSE FST 95 SSE MRF ...CONT... 50 SW TUS 40 WNW PHX 35 NNW NID TVL 70
SSE RDM 30 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AQQ 35 SSE CSG
35 W CHA 15 NE LEX 40 NNW DAY 20 N MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN STATES SUNDAY. 
DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...EJECTING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. REMNANTS OF
CHARLEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR LONG ISLAND AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

...NRN PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  ETA AND GFS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING MID 50F TO LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS
AHEAD OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT/FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO ERN
ND/CENTRAL SD BY LATE IN THE DAY.  DEEP ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING AND ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.
 FARTHER SW...HEATING AND LIFT MAY SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE
MORE UNSTABLE. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...YET STILL
SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT BECOME
MORE ELEVATED...AFTER DARK AS LLJ DE-COUPLES.  THIS MAY SPREAD
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...NORTHEAST...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS REMNANTS
OF CHARLEY ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY.  PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TROPICAL SYSTEM/S EVENTUAL
TRACK.

..EVANS.. 08/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.