[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131733
SWODY2
SPC AC 131732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30
NE CTY 40 SW AGS 30 N GSO 15 SSE BWI 20 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
4CR 35 W COS 35 NW AKO 30 NNW GLD 40 NW LTS 70 N ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 N
MAF 50 NE 4CR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW TLH 20 SW RMG
50 SSW TYS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNE IPT 10 N ORH 25 W BGR 45 NNW CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 35 WSW BJI
JMS 15 SSW ISN 65 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IPL 45 N TRM 35
W NID 15 ESE MER 50 S RBL 25 W MFR 30 NNW PDX 30 NE BLI ...CONT...
35 NNW 63S 35 ENE YKM 55 SE BKE 50 SSW VEL 50 N CYS 50 NW PHP 50 WSW
ABR 20 SW YKN 35 S P28 40 SSW DAL 40 E JCT 25 WNW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES FROM FL NWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. 
OTHER / OBVIOUS FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE CHARLEY...WHICH SHOULD
BE MOVING NNEWD ACROSS NRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  

CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  OTHER AREA OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE /
SUPERCELL STORMS.

...ATLANTIC COAST FROM FL TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
CHARLEY WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NNEWD FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL
SELY FLOW INCREASES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DOWNSTREAM OF
CHARLEY...SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS / SERN VA.  THIS BOUNDARY COULD FOCUS A TORNADO
THREAT...WITHIN REGION OF BROADER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN NERN QUADRANT OF
THE STORM.  THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AS THE CHARLEY
CONTINUES NNEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE...
MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
ALONG REAR SIDE OF PERSISTENT CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. TROUGH. 
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MODEST /LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS/ MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE REGION.

DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALLOW 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP...SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- INITIALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
CO AND ADJACENT NERN NM.

WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT
MID-LEVELS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.  EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH SHOULD
SPREAD SWD / SEWD WITH TIME AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP / MOVE INTO PARTS
OF SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET / INFLOW INCREASES.


WITH ETA MODEL SUGGESTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION...ENHANCED UVV AND STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A
GREATER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE OK AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF ANY
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURE PRECLUDES INCREASING THE SEVERE PROBABILITY
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 08/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.