[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130654
SWODY2
SPC AC 130652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
DAB 40 NNW GNV 40 SW AGS 15 NNW DAN 30 NW ILG 20 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
4CR 20 SW DEN 35 E FCL 35 WNW GLD 25 ENE LBB 45 E ROW 40 ESE 4CR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 20 SSW AHN
20 E CRW 35 SSE SLK 25 SSW HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 35 WSW BJI
JMS 15 SSW ISN 65 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IPL 45 N TRM 35
W NID 15 ESE MER 50 S RBL 25 W MFR 30 NNW PDX 30 NE BLI ...CONT...
35 NNW 63S 65 S S80 35 NNW TWF 25 N OGD 35 N LAR 15 S 81V 40 NNW RAP
35 N VTN 20 NW GRI 30 NNW END 35 SSW SPS 45 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND MID
ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHARLIE WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT IS CARRIED NNEWD WITHIN MODERATE
SSWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO
LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE...CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE PERIOD.

...ERN U.S...
HURRICANE CHARLIE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR BRUNSWICK/GA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRACK GENERALLY NNEWD WITH THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 
APPEARS INFLUX OF MOIST /I.E. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S/ AND
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF CHARLIE/S TRACK
SATURDAY.  THEREFORE...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF ENHANCED LOW TO DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITHIN FAST
MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
ATTM...OFFICIAL TRACK SUGGESTS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SBCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CO ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS BOUNDARY LAYER 
REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
GENERALLY SSEWD INTO ERN CO AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/WRN TX.  LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MID EVENING...
THOUGH STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS INTO THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG 30-35 KT SLY LLJ AFTER DARK WITH ATTENDANT
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

...WRN U.S...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE WRN STATES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH DAY TIME HEATING.  APPEARS A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST.  THEREFORE
WILL INCLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EVANS.. 08/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.