[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121729
SWODY2
SPC AC 121728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1228 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
PFN 40 ENE MAI 45 SW MCN 45 N AGS 30 ENE LYH 25 W CXY 40 ENE BGM 15
SSW RUT PSM ...CONT... 10 WNW PNS 30 WSW AUO 20 ESE RMG 30 NNW HSS
15 NW BKW HLG 25 NW JHW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
OTH 25 W SLE 30 NW DLS 45 W PDT 50 N BNO 55 NNW WMC 35 E LOL 50 SW
ELY 45 E MLF 50 W EGE 35 S DGW 35 S RAP 50 NW VTN 15 S ANW 15 ENE
EAR 15 S SLN 20 E OKC 15 WSW ABI 20 SE DRT ...CONT... ELP 40 N ALM
45 N 4CR 40 E ALS 20 NNE PUB 55 N LAA 55 ENE LAA 25 SW LBL 30 ENE
AMA 15 ESE LBB 25 N MAF 15 N FST 25 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM/SE CO/ W TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN SEABOARD...

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WITH A RIDGE IN THE W AND A TROUGH OVER THE E. THIS  PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY AS AN IMPULSE
DROPPING S ACROSS SD ON DAY 1 REACHES THE LWR OH VLY AND THEN BEGINS
TO EJECT NNE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS.  THIS IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE
SURFACE WAVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
CNTRL APLCNS EARLY IN THE DAY...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT REMNANT
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE REACHES THE NC/VA BORDER. 
THE COMBINED SURFACE WAVE/T.S. REMAINS SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ALONG
THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND EXIT THE U.S. NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY.

FARTHER S...LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT HURCN CHARLEY WILL
MOVE FROM SW OF FMY TO ERN SC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS.

IN THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT SLOWLY
ENE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW
PERSISTS IN THE NE PACIFIC.

...ERN SEABOARD...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT INVOF DEVELOPING
FRONTAL WAVE/T.S. REMNANT OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN REGION OF
NC/VA EARLY FRIDAY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOIST INFLOW/LOW LCLS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.  THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE AS WAVE MOVES NNE ACROSS ERN
MD/DE/SE PA AND NJ LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THE THREAT
MAY REACH SE NY/SRN NEW ENG BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE UNUSUALLY
STRONG /40-50 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT
HIGH LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. SURFACE HEATING IN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT S OF
WAVE MAY ALSO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG FRONT
INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY WHERE EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND DESPITE
WEAK LAPSE RATES.

FARTHER S...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN CHARLEY WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. 
THIS THREAT MAY REAPPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER CSTL PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL MOTION OF THE
STORM /SEE LATER NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/.

...NM/W TX AND SRN HI PLNS...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED
STORMS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CO/NM AND W TX THIS PERIOD
AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER REGION.
EXPECT 35-40KT OF DEEP SHEAR TO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY.  PRESENCE OF AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 55 F/ AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS.  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
CONFINE SEVERE RISK TO HAIL/HIGH WIND.

...NRN CA/CASCADES...
EXPECT ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NRN CA/WRN OR AS A
BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PAC SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION DURING MAX HEATING.  A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THERE IS LOCALLY STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

..AFWA.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.