[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120730
SWODY2
SPC AC 120729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CTY AGS 55 ESE LYH 10 NW AVP 15 SE GFL 20 SSE PSM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
ELP 30 NW ALS 30 NNW COS 25 SW LAA 35 SSE CVS 20 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PRB 10 SSW SAC
35 ESE CEC 10 SSW EUG 15 SW SEA 50 WNW EAT 35 E YKM 55 NNW BNO 70
ESE 4LW 30 E LOL 45 SW ELY 40 E MLF 45 SW 4BL 20 SE CEZ 25 ESE MTJ
45 ESE CAG 35 S CPR 25 SSE 81V 30 NNW MHN 15 SW MCK 50 S DDC 10 WSW
CDS 65 NE BGS 40 WSW SJT 25 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 30 WSW AHN
30 NNE HKY 25 W SHD 30 SW DUJ 60 WNW ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NM/SRN CO AND FAR W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN SHOULD ATTAIN MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY AS IMPULSE NOW DROPPING S ACROSS SD REACHES THE
LWR OH VLY AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT NNE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS.  THE
IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED FRONT
OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APLCNS EARLY IN THE DAY...AT ABOUT
THE SAME TIME THAT REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE
REACHES THE NC/VA BORDER.  THE COMBINED SURFACE WAVE/T.S. REMNANT 
SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AND EXIT THE
U.S. NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY.

FARTHER S...LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT HRCN CHARLEY WILL
MOVE FROM SW OF FMY TO ERN SC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS.  THE ECMWF...MEANWHILE...
DEPICTS A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO.  THAT MODEL FORECASTS CHARLEY TO
BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AS ERN U.S. TROUGH
DEAMPLIFIES LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

IN THE WEST...A DOUBLE-STRUCTURED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA
CST WILL LIFT SLOWLY ENE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS
DEEP...NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW PERSISTS IN THE NE PACIFIC.

...ERN SEABOARD...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED /AOA 40 KT/ INVOF DEVELOPING
FRONTAL WAVE/T.S. REMNANT OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN REGION OF
NC/VA EARLY FRIDAY.  COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INFLOW/LOW LCLS...THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.  THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST...AND MAY INCREASE...AS WAVE MOVES NNE ACROSS ERN MD/DE/SE
PA AND NJ LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.  THE THREAT MAY
REACH SE NY/SRN NEW ENG BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE UNUSUALLY STRONG
/40-50 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT HIGH
LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
SURFACE HEATING IN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT S OF WAVE
MAY ALSO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG FRONT INTO
THE ERN CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND DESPITE
WEAK LAPSE RATES.

FARTHER S...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN CHARLEY WILL POSE A
NWD-MOVING THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA.  THIS THREAT MAY REAPPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER CSTL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL MOTION OF THE
STORM /SEE LATER NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/.

...NM/FAR W TX AND SRN HI PLNS...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED
STORMS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CO/NM AND PERHAPS FAR W TX THIS PERIOD
AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER REGION.
SUFFICIENT /35-40 KT/ DEEP SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN
PRESENCE OF AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 55 F/ AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
CONFINE SEVERE RISK TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A
SMALL MCS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...NRN CA/CASCADES...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE MTNS
OF NRN CA/WRN ORE...ALONG RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE
AHEAD OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE.

..CORFIDI.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.