[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111732
SWODY2
SPC AC 111731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
PFN MCN CLT GSO 45 SW DCA 35 E CXY TTN 35 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SSE
SSI 55 S CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
ELP 35 ENE TCS 35 E ABQ 35 N LVS RTN TAD COS 30 W LIC 35 SE LIC LAA
LBL 65 NNE AMA AMA CVS HOB 40 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 35 NNE SBA
PRB SJC 45 ESE EKA 40 SE OTH EUG SLE PDX 40 ESE OLM 25 NE BLI
...CONT... 30 N 63S EPH PDT BKE 50 NE BNO 4LW RNO 35 N BIH LAS FLG
INW GNT 4SL 50 WSW LAR WRL SHR GCC AKO GCK DDC P28 END 40 ENE CSM
CSM 35 NW CDS BGS DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MFE ALI NIR
POE ESF CBM 5I3 EKN AOO PSB ART MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE TO SERN
PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO TO SRN NM AND FAR W
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUAL PATTERN ALOFT IS EVOLVING FOR EARLY-MID AUGUST...WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE MEAN TROUGH FROM ONT TO GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTENSE RIDGE
FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND WRN CANADA.  ONE OR
MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH
OVER MS/OH VALLEYS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER VA/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT REGION...ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO NWRN GULF BY 13/00Z. 
ALSO ENTANGLED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE TS BONNIE...WHOSE REMNANTS
ARE FCST TO MOVE NEWD FROM NERN GULF TOWARD CAROLINAS BY END OF
PERIOD.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SERN CONUS...
TSTMS MAY FORM INVOF SFC FRONT FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ AREA THROUGH
TIDEWATER...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WHERE BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL
SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS.  MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.  FARTHER S...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT FROM
TIDEWATER REGION SWWD THROUGH CAROLINAS PIEDMONT EARLY DURING
DAY...SUPPORTED BY POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING UNDER CLOUD
BREAKS...NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK CAPPING.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER PREFRONTAL AIR MASS
NOT YET AFFECTED BY REMAINS OF T.S. BONNIE.  THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL OVER THIS REGION PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
REMAINS OF TS BONNIE.

LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- INDICATE
BONNIE WILL MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN DAY-2 PERIOD AND MOVE
NEWD PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...WITH REMNANTS OVER PORTIONS
CAROLINAS/SERN VA BY 13/12Z.  DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...FOREGOING AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL
BUOYANCY OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS -- AS NEAR
MOIST-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE
HEATING IS LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.  HOWEVER... EXPECT VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE
UNDER CLOUD BREAKS...AND ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS WITH APCH OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA AND
SHIFTING NEWD...MAINLY RIGHTWARD OF PROJECTED TRACK.

...SRN ROCKIES/PECOS VALLEY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER ERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF SRN CO AND ERN/SRN NM...SOME
OF WHICH WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. 
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ALSO IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT OUTLOOK AREA. 
TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
LCL IN MOST AREAS.  HOWEVER...40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND LIKELIHOOD
FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHT MOTIONS -- ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS
-- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  WEAK BUT STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES IN LOW LEVELS...MEAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OF LIKELY INSTABILITY AXIS ALL SUGGEST
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SSEWD TO SSWWD AND REMAIN WITHIN RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY OVER SERN CO AND ERN
NM.  ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW.  MID-LATE AFTERNOON/PRE-STORM MLCAPE SHOULD MAX OUT AT AROUND
1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL NM...DECREASING TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG IN
SERN CO WHERE SFC THETAE IS LOWER...AND ALSO DECREASING TOWARD SRN
NM BECAUSE OF STRONGER HEATING AND LOWER SFC RH.  ACTIVITY MAY
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SWD MOVING MCS BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY
NIGHT.

..EDWARDS.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.