[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110729
SWODY2
SPC AC 110728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
DMN 10 SW ONM 30 NNW ALS 20 SSW COS 50 N CAO 30 NNW HOB 20 SSE P07.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
CEW 15 NE LGC 15 NNW AND 20 SSE ROA 30 ESE MRB 20 NNW PHL 15 SSE NEL
...CONT... 20 NE JAX 60 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MRY 50 W RBL 25
NE 4BK 25 ENE ONP 45 N PDX 35 E DLS 55 SW BNO RNO 35 ESE BIH LAS 40
NNW GCN 35 N SOW 10 NE GNT 10 NE EGE 25 SSE CYS 45 SE GLD 25 E LBL
10 SE AMA LBB 50 WSW SJT 45 NW SAT 30 NNW CLL 30 SSW HEZ GAD 20 NE
5I3 35 NNW LBE 25 NNW PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM...SRN CO AND
FAR W TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW FL AND GA NEWD TO THE
MID ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM
ON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN MANITOBA DEEPENS AND
CONTINUES S/SE INTO THE MID MS VLY...AND TROUGH NOW OVER IA/WI LIFTS
NE INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE A VERY UNUSUAL /FOR AUGUST/ FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE E CNTRL U.S. BY EARLY FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IA SHORTWAVE
SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS EARLY THURSDAY. 
THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SHARPENING OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH BACKS MEAN FLOW TO S/SWLY
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.  ELSEWHERE...WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BACK-DOOR SW ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN RCKYS.

..SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS...
STRONG SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EXPECTED TO
SHUNT EFFECTIVE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WELL W INTO NM AND S CNTRL
CO BY THURSDAY...DESPITE MORE EWD DEPICTION ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS
IN THE GFS.  COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE
FLOW WITHIN RESIDUAL AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NM/S CNTRL CO MTNS.  STEEP LOW
TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE /30 KT/ NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  SETUP
SHOULD FAVOR CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE OR TWO SWD-MOVING CLUSTERS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

...FL PNHDL/GA NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC CST...
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS AOA 70F/ WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG AND E OF STALLING FRONT OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN
AND CNTRL APLCNS.  THIS WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT/CSTL
PLNS FROM GA NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME AS JET ENTRANCE REGION DEVELOPS ALOFT
ON ERN SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER S...REMNANT
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/MEAN FLOW OVER THE FL PNHDL AND SRN GA.

MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG /35-40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR THROUGHOUT
REGION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO BANDS WITH POSSIBLE
BOWING SEGMENTS.  STRONGER CONVERGENCE/BACKED FLOW INVOF ANY WEAK
FRONTAL WAVES...AND INVOF BONNIE...MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT.

..CORFIDI.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.