[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091734
SWODY2
SPC AC 091733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS
RTN FCL 25 NE LAR 55 SSE DGW BFF SNY 25 S IML HLC RSL ICT TUL MLC
ADM SPS PVW CVS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 40
ENE UCA MSV ABE HGR MGW PIT FKL 40 N BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL RIC DAN SPA 35
SSE AND AGS 40 E SAV ...CONT... 45 NW LRD HDO TPL TYR PRX ELP
...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 SSE RAL RAL 30 S DAG EED INW ABQ SAF ALS RWL
JAC 27U GEG 35 E EPH RDM 60 SE EUG 20 NE EUG 45 ENE BLI ...CONT...
45 NW CTB CTB GTF 3HT BIL SHR CDR LBF TOP OJC VIH MDH EVV LUK 40 SE
DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...ERN CO...PORTIONS
WRN/SRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NY AND MUCH OF
PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN
CONUS...AMIDST LARGER SCALE WAVE TRAIN CONTAINING WRN RIDGE AND
GREAT LAKES TROUGH.  UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP WINDS OVER MN/ONT BORDER REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS LS AND OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT BY 10/12Z...THEN WEAKEN AS
IT APCHS NRN ONT/QUE BORDER.  UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER W-CENTRAL SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD INTO LONGWAVE
TROUGH...BECOME CLOSED LOW...AND EFFECTIVELY REPLACE PRESENT CYCLONE
ACROSS LS/UPPER MI REGION.

SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA TO NRN KS AND
ERN CO -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS...NRN OK AND PORTIONS OK/TX
PANHANDLES THROUGH PERIOD.  MEANWHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS...AS
PARENT LOW OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NEWD OVER NERN ONT AND WRN QUE.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
ERN CO AND WRN KS...AND PERHAPS OVER CYS RIDGE AND RATON MESA AREAS
AS WELL.  LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...STRONG BUOYANCY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  WNW TO NW MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KT SERN CO TO 40 KT
SERN WY.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND N
OF SFC FRONT.  THIS ALSO WILL AID UPSLOPE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ASCENT...COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO WEAKEN CAP.  RESULTANT MLCAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BETWEEN CYS-CAO...AND MAY EXCEED
3000 J/KG PORTIONS WRN KS.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT
MOTIONS FOR EARLY/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS  -- TOWARD SSE OR S. 
RESULTANT STORM-RELATIVE FLOW FIELDS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.
 HOWEVER...HIGH LCL AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS ALONG AND S OF FRONT
SUPPORT MORE OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT BEGINNING LATE
AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO/WRN KS REGION AND SPREADING SSEWD TO SEWD
DURING EVENING.

...NERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150
NM AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING DAY -- AS DIABATIC HEATING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS CAP AND SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AIDS IN
INITIATION.  SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S - MID 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MOST AREAS.  WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS MINIMIZED -- ALLOWING STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING -- WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE GUST
POTENTIAL.  FROM PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NY...WARM-SECTOR KINEMATIC
FIELDS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 45-55 KT 500 MB FLOW AND
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. 
40-50 KT SHEAR PROGGED THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...AND PREFRONTAL 0-3 KM
SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...EACH INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
FOR DISCRETE CELLS.  HOWEVER LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODE IS FAVORED IN
THIS PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS/LEWPS.  THEREFORE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. MAIN CAVEATS ATTM ARE LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FORCING -- GIVEN ONLY MINOR/GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE
-- AND RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.