[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080731
SWODY2
SPC AC 080731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
TAD 25 WNW COS 20 WNW CYS 35 WSW BFF 45 SE SNY 45 SE GLD 25 SSW GCK
20 SW EHA 15 ESE TAD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
CLE 30 ENE DAY 15 SW DNV 10 NNE MMO 40 NE MKG 10 E OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT
35 SW RAP BUB 30 ENE HLC 30 NNW HUT 40 E STJ 30 NW BRL 15 NNW JVL 35
NNE GRB 20 SW IWD 25 SSW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD
35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE
MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 15
ENE NIR 35 NNW VCT 20 SE CLL 20 SSE TYR 45 SW PRX 20 NE MWL 15 WNW
BWD 50 SW JCT 40 SE DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 W BLH 50 SW PRC 50 NNE SOW
40 SE DRO 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF CANADA
AND THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM FROM
THE SWRN DESERTS INTO BC/YUKON.  LEAD IMPULSE IN CYCLONIC JET...NOW
ENTERING WRN ND...SHOULD REACH NRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE E
TO NEAR SSM BY 12Z TUESDAY.  UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER NW
AB...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SE INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MB.

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AS OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE UPR
MIDWEST/OH VLY.  WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM SE WY/ERN CO INTO SRN KS.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
WEAK...FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS
ON MONDAY INVOF STALLING COLD FRONT...BENEATH 25-30 KT NWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE ABSENCE OF AN
IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.  HAIL AND HIGH WIND COULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO...AND EXTEND A
LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE S/SE TOWARD NE NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

...LWR MI INTO IL/IND/OH...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHERE AMPLE
/35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS.  BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AS A RESULT OF
RECENT COOL AIR INVASION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...
FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE
FAIRLY WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. NEVERTHELESS...ASSUMING AT
LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING...RESULTING LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HIGH WIND GIVEN STRENGTH
OF DEEP SHEAR AND SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.

..CORFIDI.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.