[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071648
SWODY2
SPC AC 071647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
MQT 25 SSE OSH 35 WNW PIA 40 S IRK 10 W CNU 35 ENE GAG 35 SSW EHA 35
WNW HLC 45 WNW OLU 55 N AXN 65 NNW TVF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 50 N TUS
50 SW SOW 45 SW GUP 15 SW GUP 50 NE DRO 35 ENE ASE 20 SW FCL 45 WNW
AKO 45 SE AIA 30 NE VTN 35 SW ABR 30 SSE JMS 35 NW JMS 55 WNW MOT 80
NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BOS 15 NW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR
30 NW SLO 30 SSE VIH 25 NNE FYV 40 ESE OKC 45 S LTS 30 N ABI 35 S
SEP 35 ESE ACT 30 NW LFT 50 NW GPT 25 W DHN 30 E SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY REGION SUNDAY.  ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ERN ND EARLY SUNDAY TO NRN
MN/NWRN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  S OF THE LOW...A FRONT WILL
SWEEP SEWD...REACHING A POSITION FROM NWRN WI-CNTRL IA-SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
TSTMS.

...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY.  AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD...INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN AND
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL
MODULATE INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BUT...ANY 
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...20-30 KTS...BUT GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5
SIXTY METER HEIGHT FALLS...A FEW TSTMS ARE APT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.

FARTHER SOUTH FROM IA INTO KS...WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
MORE UNSTABLE. FULL INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON SBCAPES
2000-2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  COMBO OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER IA/ERN NEB AND BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN KS BY MID AFTERNOON. 
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AOB 30 KTS...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO ERN IA...NRN MO AND
CNTRL-SRN KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME.  PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS HAVE REFLECTED A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..RACY.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.