[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081700
SWODY2
SPC AC 081659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
TAD 25 WNW COS 20 WNW CYS 35 WSW BFF 45 SE SNY 45 SE GLD 25 SSW GCK
20 SW EHA 15 ESE TAD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
CLE 30 ENE DAY 15 SW DNV 10 NNE MMO 40 NE MKG 10 E OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W BLH 50 SW
PRC 50 NNE SOW 40 SE DRO 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30
NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 15 SW HSI 20
WSW FNB 15 WSW P35 30 NW BRL 15 NNW JVL 35 NNE GRB 20 SW IWD 25 SSW
BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15
NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN
30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 15 ENE NIR 35 NNW VCT 20
SE CLL 20 SSE TYR 45 SW PRX 20 NE MWL 15 WNW BWD 50 SW JCT 40 SE
DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG
SEWD FROM SRN CANADA.  WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO
WRN CANADA.  THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.
 ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO LOWER MI...SWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND WWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.  PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE TSTMS. 

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL
ADVECT/MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS BACK TO THE FRONT
RANGE. HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...ELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30-40 KT NWLY H5 FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS AND MOVE
TOWARD WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS MONDAY NIGHT.

...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES...
AS 30-60 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREAD EWD...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD
MOVING COLD FRONT.  LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDE
POSSIBLE CLOUDS/LACK OF INSOLATION AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE...HOWEVER...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LINES OF TSTMS
THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH AND NRN IND.

..RACY.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.