[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070655
SWODY2
SPC AC 070654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
MQT 25 SSE OSH 35 WNW PIA 40 S IRK 10 W CNU 35 ENE GAG 35 SSW EHA 30
W HLC 30 WSW SPW 30 SW BRD INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 50 N TUS
50 SW SOW 45 SW GUP 15 SW GUP 50 NE DRO 35 ENE ASE 20 SW FCL 45 WNW
AKO 45 SE AIA 30 NE VTN 35 SW ABR 30 SSE JMS 35 NW JMS 55 WNW MOT 80
NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR
30 NW SLO 30 SSE VIH 25 NNE FYV 40 ESE OKC 45 S LTS 30 N ABI 35 S
SEP 35 ESE ACT 30 NW LFT 50 NW GPT 25 W DHN 30 E SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BOS 15 NW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. ALLOWS TROUGH TO DIG SEWD FROM NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING NWLY
FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD UNDER UPPER TROUGH ALONG MN/CANADIAN
BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.
A SECONDARY LEE LOW WRN KS AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SWD
DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THRU HIGH PLAINS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER
MS VALLEY.

... UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THIS AREA.  LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE WILL BE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS LOWER LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN
30KT.  MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH LESSER DAMAGING WIND
CONCERN.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORE ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES
WILL BE 8C/KM OR GREATER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MORE PRONOUNCED UNDER
INCREASING NWLY FLOW.  MLCAPES AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE
2000 J/KG WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL
PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA SUGGESTS AN MCS WILL
POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL NEB THEN DROP SWD
ACROSS KS THRU INSTABILITY AXIS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SHEAR
PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL FORMATION WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS.

..HALES.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.