[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061723
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
RRT 55 W AXN 15 NNE YKN 30 WNW OFK 30 NW EAR 35 NNW IML 10 SW AIA 40
N CDR 25 ESE REJ 40 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NW PHX 25
SSE GCN 50 ESE PGA 15 NW CEZ 25 SE MTJ 40 SSW 4FC 15 N FCL 55 N CYS
55 S 81V 35 SSW MLS 80 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 30 S LSE 15
ESE OTM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 45 SSE CDS 35 WNW ABI DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY.  COLD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN STATES
DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR AUGUST...SITUATED FROM CNTRL FL INTO
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  LEE-TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP EWD INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. 

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATES INTO ERN MT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ONTO THE NRN
PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
STRENGTHENING LEE-TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION FROM
WRN ND INTO CNTRL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS AOA 60F BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  GIVEN APPROACH
OF 45-55 KT H5 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS.  STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.  LATER IN THE
EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRACK
ESEWD TOWARD ERN SD/ND...WRN MN AND PERHAPS NERN NEB. PROBABILITIES
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING.

FARTHER S...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE LENGTH OF THE LEE-
TROUGH SWD INTO CNTRL NEB...WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS.  SLY FLOW
OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH INCREASING NNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL AUGMENT
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUCH THAT GIVEN A TSTM...SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT... ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLD.  LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SLGT
RISK FARTHER S IF SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER.

..RACY.. 08/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.