[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051735
SWODY2
SPC AC 051734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW 15 ENE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 40 W DLH 25 ESE
STC 30 NNW FOD 15 SE OMA 30 NNW CNK 25 WSW P28 15 SW LTS ABI 45 SSW
BWD 40 SW GLS ...CONT... 15 S YUM 15 NNE P38 50 N EVW WEY 30 NE ALW
25 WSW DLS 40 N ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME ON
FRIDAY.  DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLING UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...INTO NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. 
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NRN PLAINS...
A PIECE OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES TODAY WILL TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE DAKS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  A TSTM CLUSTER OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE DAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ALONG NOSE OF 35-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS.  THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VLY/WRN MN BY EVENING.  

IN WAKE OF THE IMPULSE/TSTMS...LARGE SCALE RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT MAY
TEND TO KEEP RISKS FOR SEVERE TSTMS LIMITED ACROSS THE DAKS DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AIR MASS DOES RECOVER IN WAKE OF THESE
TSTMS AND THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE LEE TROUGH CNTRL SD/ND.  GIVEN A
TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO... HOWEVER...IS FOR
LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND CAP TO KEEP TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. 

...NRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PAC
NW TROUGH VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT. 
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS OVER MT
OWING TO TONIGHT/S MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. 
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
50S WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL-ERN MT.  

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN/WRN MT AND
MIGRATE EWD TOWARD THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE EVENING.  IF
TSTMS CAN SURVIVE...THEY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE
HAIL...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE THREATS MAY BE. 
AS SUCH...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A SLGT RISK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS.

...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALONG LEE-TROUGH/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  VEERING OF THE WIND THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE MAY AUGMENT
TSTMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  

...WRN WA...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND PAC NW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG /MUCAPES
300-500 J/KG/ OWING TO LIMITED INSOLATION...KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL
BE MODEST WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS.  SELY FLOW BENEATH
STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-1KM SRH OF 150 M2/S2 AS
WELL.  THOUGH THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM...IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GIVEN STRONGER INSOLATION/INSTABILITY
THAT A STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OR A VERY BRIEF
TORNADO.

..RACY.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.