[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050733
SWODY2
SPC AC 050732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW 15 ENE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 15 NNE P38
50 N EVW WEY 25 WSW LWS 30 E SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... INL 40 W DLH
25 ESE STC 30 NNW FOD 15 SE OMA 30 NNW CNK 25 WSW P28 15 SW LTS ABI
45 SSW BWD 40 SW GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE BY
EARLY TOMORROW...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FL PENINSULA
ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND
TROUGH.  FARTHER W...A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAKENING/EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A STRONGER UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.  THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN
PLAINS INVOF THE LEE TROUGH...AND SOME PORTION OF EITHER AREA MAY
NEED AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES.

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW
WILL EJECT EWD AND LOSE AMPLITUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHILE MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND E OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXES RELATIVELY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT.  ADDITIONALLY...VEERED FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE LEAD TROUGH GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT
ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.  

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A
WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS
AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH WEAK
TO MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH...WHERE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.