[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041714
SWODY2
SPC AC 041712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
OLF 40 N REJ 40 ENE CDR 30 ESE AIA 15 SE SNY 40 ESE CYS 30 NW CYS 60
SW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 N BZN 30 SW 3DU 25 WSW S06 60 ENE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
CRE 20 NE FLO 40 WNW SOP 20 NNE GSO 20 SSE LYH 35 NNW RIC 30 SSE
DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW YUM 25 S P38
15 N OGD 10 NNE PIH 55 SSW 27U 35 ESE BKE 50 WSW BNO 65 SSW RDM 50 E
EUG 50 ESE OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 15 ENE MHE 20 NNE CNK
25 WSW P28 10 N LBB 35 WSW ABI 20 SE GGG 10 ESE PBF 35 N TUP 35 WSW
TYS 45 W MRB 20 NE ABE 10 S HYA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF VA/NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...MID-ATLANTIC INTO ERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
UPPER OH VLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT SHOULD BE FARTHER SEWD THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTION...WITH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON POSITION FROM ERN LONG ISLAND SWWD INTO DE...SRN
VA AND CNTRL NC.  AS A RESULT...THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SWD
OUT OF SRN NEW ENGLAND/NYC/PHL/DCA AREAS.  

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
MOIST/UNSTABLE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND ANTICIPATED
INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN NC.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING TSTMS DURING PEAK
HEATING FROM SERN VA INTO CNTRL NC.  OTHER STORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  MODEST INSTABILITY...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
 AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FARTHER SW...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE LENGTH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.  BUT...WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING
SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK UPPER JETLET EJECTING FROM BASE OF AN UPSTREAM PAC
NW TROUGH WILL MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH WA/ORE TODAY AND THEN ACROSS NRN
ID AND NWRN MT ON THURSDAY.  TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE DIURNALLY BASED TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY NWRN MT DURING PEAK
HEATING.  THESE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE SWRN MT HIGHER
TERRAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MIGRATE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AT NIGHT OVER NCNTRL OR NERN MT AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD INTO ALTA.
 
OTHER TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER WY/CO TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ESELY MAINTAINING
50S/60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  GIVEN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW TSTMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD FROM NWRN
CO MAY MAINTAIN A SMALL MCS THAT COULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT WRN NEB
PNHDL AND SWRN SD THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME.

..RACY.. 08/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.