[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031733
SWODY2
SPC AC 031731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
GGW 60 NE 4BQ 30 SE MHN MCK 50 WNW GLD 20 WNW CYS 15 SE SHR 45 NW
3HT 60 NW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
JHW 25 SSW DUJ 50 ENE CRW 15 NW 5I3 40 E BWG 15 E CGI 40 WNW TBN 25
N SZL 30 E LWD 30 SE DBQ 20 S MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LRD 40 SSE CLL
35 SE ESF 65 SW SEM 40 WSW MCN 30 E FAY 15 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 10 WSW BGM
CXY 45 S MRB 15 S PSK 40 ENE CHA 20 ENE GWO 30 SSW TXK 35 N BWD 30
WSW MAF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 40 SE PHX 25 SSW PRC 45 NNE
IGM 35 SW MLF 20 ENE DPG 25 NW MLD 55 WSW SUN 30 ESE BNO 45 NE LMT
25 W MHS 15 ENE 4BK 25 ESE AST 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 45 E
Y22 9V9 35 ENE BUB 35 NNE RSL 10 E MHK 35 NE FNB 30 E MCW 15 NE GRB
20 SE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY FEATURING A 
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW...A ROCKIES RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...A PIECE OF THE
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND
DIG SEWD INTO THE CORN BELT TONIGHT AND THE UPPER OH VLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE WILL MOVE
FROM IA EARLY WEDNESDAY EWD TO WRN PA BY EARLY THURSDAY.  IN WAKE OF
THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE LOW AND
FRONT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS.

...MID MS VLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OH VLY...
12Z ETA/GFS STILL APPEAR TO BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS OWING TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.  SEE HPC MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  FORECAST DETAILS WILL
RELY HEAVILY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY/TONIGHT AND ALSO ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF AMPLIFICATION THAT INDEED OCCURS.

A MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS
VLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG SRN EDGE
OF THIS MCS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.  MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS VCNTY LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY THROUGH NRN
IND AND NRN OH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GIVEN VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AGAIN MODELS MAY BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES. IF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A BOW ECHO OR TWO TO TRACK FROM THE
MID/UPPER MS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OH VLY.  BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /70S/ AND MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE H85.  THUS...KINEMATIC/
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UPS WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  NWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS ATOP THE ESELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT.  IT IS
LIKELY...HOWEVER...THAT ANY ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE AND WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN
WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MARINE PUSH MAY BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. 
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE WILL TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER
TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES THAT MAY MOVE INTO INTERIOR PARTS OF WA/ORE
DURING THE EVENING.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...ONE
OR TWO TSTMS MAY ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR HIGH WINDS.

..RACY.. 08/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.