[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030728
SWODY2
SPC AC 030727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
JHW 25 SSW DUJ 50 ENE CRW 15 NW 5I3 40 E BWG 15 E CGI 40 WNW TBN 25
N SZL 30 E LWD 30 SE DBQ DTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
GGW 60 NE 4BQ 30 SE MHN MCK 50 WNW GLD 20 WNW CYS 15 SE SHR 45 NW
3HT 60 NW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LRD 40 SSE CLL
35 SE ESF 65 SW SEM 40 WSW MCN 30 E FAY 15 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 35 SE PHX
25 SSW PRC 45 NNE IGM 35 SW MLF 20 ENE DPG 25 NW MLD 55 WSW SUN 30
ESE BNO 45 NE LMT 25 W MHS 15 ENE 4BK 25 WNW PDX 25 NNE BLI
...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 45 E Y22 9V9 35 ENE BUB 35 NNE RSL 10 E MHK 35
NE FNB 30 E MCW 15 NE GRB 20 SE APN ...CONT... 35 WNW SYR 10 WSW BGM
CXY 45 S MRB 15 S PSK 40 ENE CHA 20 ENE GWO 30 SSW TXK 35 N BWD 30
WSW MAF 60 SSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
OH VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW...A RIDGE OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  WITHIN THE BELT OF FLOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO
THE OH VALLEY...A SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD FROM ROUGHLY ERN IA EARLY TO
WRN PA/NY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...BUT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AMPLIFICATION SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN
BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND GFS FORECASTS.  

...MID MS TO OH VALLEY AREA...
TAKEN LITERALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/GFS SHOW EXTREMELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN A CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE LOW
FROM NRN IL AROUND MIDDAY TO WRN PA TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND THE INTENSE VERTICAL
SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO 
THREAT E OF THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE NECESSARY EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ORIGINATING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  DESPITE THE QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED TORNADO
THREAT...THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION FAVORS A SEVERE WIND/HAIL
THREAT WITH ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD TO THE OH VALLEY LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE LOWER
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES MID
LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO A NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF
THE ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL MT TO ERN WY/WRN NEB/NE CO.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...GIVEN
30-40 KT WLY TO NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THIS
AREA...UPSLOPE FLOW AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 08/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.