[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
ISN 35 W BIS FSD 20 N DBQ AZO 15 NNW PIT 20 SE CRW 5I3 BWG 20 SW MDH
25 S SLN 45 ENE GLD BFF BIL HLN 20 N CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 4BL RKS
PIH 40 N SUN 45 SE BKE BNO 35 ESE MHS 45 W MHS 35 NW MFR PDX 15 NE
BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE MOT 15 ENE JMS AXN CWA 20 NNE MTW 35 NNE MBS
...CONT... 10 NW LRD 25 SSE CLL 15 SSE POE MCB MGM LGC 25 WNW AHN 50
SSE TYS BNA POF JLN P28 35 N GAG AMA 65 SE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE...BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
NWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW
ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NWWD
INTO MT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER W ...AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT BE
EJECTED NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEYS...
MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE MCS/S ON TUESDAY..THOUGH
LOCATION/TIMING/SPEED ARE OFTEN NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. PAST
COUPLE OF ETA/GFS RUNS...INCLUDING GFS NRN BIAS...HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION TONIGHT BEING
LOCATED IN IA/IL AT THE START OF PERIOD. THESE STORMS MIGHT BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH HEATING... MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS...A BOW ECHO IS
POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CLUSTER IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN
INITIATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF FRONT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER
FROM NEB INTO SRN IA/NRN MO AND SHOULD FAVOR STORMS EVOLVING INTO A
SLIGHT ELEVATED BOW ECHO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT SPREADING ESEWD
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...MT AREA...
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MOISTEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY ACROSS ERN MT...RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE HEIGHT
RISES...STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN MT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...NEW ENGLAND...
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW MAY BE
FAVORABLE TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO LINES/BANDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MLCAPES...NCEP ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE MOSTLY AOB
1000 J/KG...SO ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF WIND DAMAGE ATTM.

..IMY.. 08/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.