[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020733
SWODY2
SPC AC 020732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N
OLF 10 WSW DIK 45 N 9V9 35 SE FSD 40 NE MLI 30 SE SBN 20 NW CMH 30
WNW HTS 55 SSW LEX CGI HUT 50 S HLC 20 NE SNY 40 NE SHR 30 ENE GTF
30 NNE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 15 ENE JMS
10 S AXN 20 ESE EAU 20 SSW MBL 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 65 WSW COT 40 S
CLL 35 ESE POE 40 SW LUL 10 WNW TOI 45 ESE MCN CAE 40 NE CLT 35 NE
HKY 20 W HSS 25 W CSV 30 ENE JBR 15 NW FYV 25 WSW END 40 NNE AMA 20
ENE CVS 10 SW ROW 50 SSE ELP ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 80 NW GUP 25 W PUC
55 NE MLD 25 SE 27U 30 E BKE 25 WSW BNO 30 WSW 4LW 25 NNE MHS 25 NW
MFR 15 SSE PDX 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE REGIME AS
A MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN INVOF SE HUDSON BAY...WHILE
UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TO THE E OF AN ERN PAC TROUGH.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NE STATES...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
RATHER MARGINAL.  FARTHER W...THE ERN PAC TROUGH WILL HELP EJECT THE
MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NW CA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY TO CREST THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER A SLOW-MOVING WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...ALONG WHICH ONE OR MORE MCS/S
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD.

...PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLEX WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
MCS/S FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY IMPACT THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT TUESDAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  AT THIS
TIME...THE MOST PROBABLE EVOLUTION IS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SW SD/WRN NEB AND SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRESTING THE RIDGE.  STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE
CORRIDOR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS SAME CORRIDOR.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EPISODE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHER CONVECTION FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD MAY PERSIST AND/OR INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY WHILE MOVING SE ACROSS THE IA/IL/INDIANA AREA. 
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AREA.

...ERN MT AREA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY TUESDAY ACROSS ERN
MT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.  DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THIS
AREA...THE STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
CENTRAL MT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.