[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011718
SWODY2
SPC AC 011716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
SPI LWD 20 NNE OLU 45 NW VTN 40 S REJ 65 NNW REJ 20 NNW DIK 45 ESE
P24 35 NNE FAR 55 NW IWD 25 N IMT 30 SSE HTL 25 SW FNT 25 ENE FWA 25
NNE IND 20 SSE CMI 30 WSW SPI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 50 WSW PRC
60 NNE DRA 10 E LOL SVE RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 NNE ACV 50 NNE 4BK 45 N
RDM 25 ESE EPH 45 N 63S ...CONT... 60 N OLF 15 W MOT 25 E DVL 20 E
TVF 20 NNE ELO ...CONT... 40 W ERI 15 E MFD 40 NE SDF 25 ENE OWB 20
W MDH 40 NE MHK 10 NNE IML 10 N AKO 30 ESE DEN 20 S RTN 40 W CVS 30
ENE HOB 45 ENE SJT 30 NW LFK 40 E LUL 10 S AUO 20 SE ATL 35 W AVL
BLF 20 WSW CXY 20 NNE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES...

...NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...
STRONG NWLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS...WILL INTENSIFY AS A MID-LEVEL JET DROPS SEWD OUT OF
SRN CANADA ON DAY 2. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME VERY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONG
SFC HEATING. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
4000 TO 5000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB AND NRN
IA. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
INITIATION LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
SUPERCELLS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN ND AND SW
MN. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS ERN MT...SRN ND AND MN. 

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN
IA AS STORMS CONGEAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE STORMS MAY
BECOME LINEAR IN ORIENTATION WITH A COLD POOL TRACKING SEWD ACROSS
SE MN AND NE IA INTO WI AND NR IL OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...NRN ROCKIES...
A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND PROGRESS EWD TONIGHT REACHING
THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT (500
MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C) MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL NEAR PEAK HEATING
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 08/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.