[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010700
SWODY2
SPC AC 010658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
ISN 25 WNW BIS 50 S JMS 20 ENE DLH 30 WSW CMX 70 E MQT 40 ENE PLN 45
SE OSC 25 NE TOL 20 NW HUF 30 WSW SPI 15 NW LWD 20 NE OLU 25 SE RAP
30 N 4BQ 70 NW MLS 70 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ERI 30 SE MFD 25
SW LUK 35 ESE OWB 30 WSW MDH 35 SW JEF 10 W FLV 25 SSW BIE 25 NE MCK
40 W IML 35 N LIC 10 SE RTN 60 W CVS 35 NE HOB 35 S BWD 55 ENE LFK
30 W LUL 40 SW SEM 15 WSW CSG 20 ESE ATL 40 W AVL 10 SE BLF 30 E HGR
25 SSW PSF 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 60 N MOT 55 ESE MOT 50 WSW GFK 25
SSW TVF 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 40 SSW PRC 45 SSE LAS 50 ESE
TPH 20 NE LOL 15 NE SVE 20 SW RBL 15 E ACV 40 SSE OTH 40 NW PDT 45 N
63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WRN GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS LATE....

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE ANCHORED BY A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...TROUGHS ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC
COASTS...AND THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. 
WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD INVOF THE BORDER...WITH WEAK WAVES ON A
SURFACE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED WITH EACH MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  FARTHER W...THE CLOSED LOW OVER NW CA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ERN PAC.  MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH...WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES.

...ERN SD TO LOWER MI AREA...
COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO FOR MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SEVERE STORM
EPISODES/CLUSTERS POSSIBLE.  ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 TO PERSIST AS A FAST MOVING MCS ACROSS MN/WI
TOWARD LOWER MI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ETA/GFS.  ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY IS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW WI/SRN MN/ERN SD.  EITHER WAY...A
RESERVOIR OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-5000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW WI/IA/MN/ERN SD/ERN NEB WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COINCIDE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM.  THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED BY 35-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS BOW ECHOES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS...AND MORE CONCENTRATED
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY MCS/S. SOME PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IF A PARTICULAR SCENARIO/AREA BECOMES
MORE APPARENT IN TIME. 

...ERN MT/WRN ND LATE...
IN THE WAKE OF LATE DAY 1 CONVECTION...THE WRN ND/ERN MT AREA WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.  DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND RESULT
IN MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION NWWD FROM SD.  WAA AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON.. 08/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.