[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080101
SWODY1
SPC AC 080059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST TUE NOV 07 2006

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL...
SUPERCELL WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
E CENTRAL FL EARLIER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.  MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY-LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E CENTRAL AND INTO SRN FL IS MORE
SWLY...RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 
THEREFORE...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED. 

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SE OF FRONT -- WHICH LIES
NNE-SSW ACROSS CENTRAL FL -- REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH WITH TIME...GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
MOIST /LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WORKED INLAND
ACROSS NERN SC AND INTO ERN SC...E AND NE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
ERN SC.  DESPITE THIS...INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL -- PER LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AND EVENING RAOBS WHICH REVEAL VERY WEAK LAPSE
RATES. 

GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. 
HOWEVER...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW/FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

..GOSS.. 11/08/2006