[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080547
SWODY1
SPC AC 080546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN U.S. AND A STRONGER TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.  IN BETWEEN...A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN
NC SWD/SWWD ACROSS SRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE NWD WITH TIME TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC/SEWD ACROSS FL.  A SECOND COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES FROM SRN
ALBERTA RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD JAMES BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...S FL...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER S
FL AND THE KEYS AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST
BY THE START OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION
MAY COMBINE WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER FORECAST ACROSS THIS
REGION -- AND EXPAND IT NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE A FEW
STRIKES COULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...PAC NW...
AS LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR ALOFT /-28
TO -30C AT H5/ SETTLES EWD INTO THE PAC NW...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. 
GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR
DIURNAL PEAK HEATING.

...NERN ND INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N
CENTRAL CONUS -- AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BORDER INTO S CENTRAL
CANADA -- AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 11/08/2006