[SWODY1] SWODY1
Severe Weather Outlook Day 1
swody1 at goshenarc.org
Wed Nov 8 00:59:43 UTC 2006
ACUS01 KWNS 080101
SWODY1
SPC AC 080059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST TUE NOV 07 2006
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN FL...
SUPERCELL WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
E CENTRAL FL EARLIER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY-LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E CENTRAL AND INTO SRN FL IS MORE
SWLY...RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
THEREFORE...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED.
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SE OF FRONT -- WHICH LIES
NNE-SSW ACROSS CENTRAL FL -- REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH WITH TIME...GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
MOIST /LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WORKED INLAND
ACROSS NERN SC AND INTO ERN SC...E AND NE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
ERN SC. DESPITE THIS...INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL -- PER LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AND EVENING RAOBS WHICH REVEAL VERY WEAK LAPSE
RATES.
GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
HOWEVER...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW/FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
..GOSS.. 11/08/2006
More information about the SwoDy1
mailing list