[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071940
SWODY1
SPC AC 071937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST TUE NOV 07 2006

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...

LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO STEEPEN
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH DUE IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS OF THE ERN GULF WHERE BUOYANCY IS A BIT
GREATER.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE WELL ORGANIZED COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE WCNTRL COAST.  A LONG-LIVED MVC IS LOCATED JUST NW
OF PIE WITH A BAND OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDING FROM E-SW OF
CIRCULATION CENTER.  AIRMASS INLAND IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AND
IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST.  ALTHOUGH THIS CLUSTER OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL
PENINSULA...ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND GRADUAL
WEAKEN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER MORE STABLE INLAND AREAS.

...CAROLINA COAST...

LATER TONIGHT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
CURRENT EJECTING SHORTWAVE.  REGIONAL RADAR DATA EXHIBITS A WELL
DEFINED VORT CENTER ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER...JUST ENE OF FLO. 
BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIFT NORTH OF THIS REGION WITH
GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6-18
HOURS. IT APPEARS MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INLAND
ENHANCING THE BUOYANCY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH.  IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN SPREAD INLAND THEN
SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK.  COASTAL SC/NC WILL BE MONITORED
AT 01Z OUTLOOK FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW.. 11/07/2006