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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251301
SWODY1
SPC AC 251258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2006

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
CA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT
BASIN...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR 41N/128W
UNDERCUTTING BROADER ERN GULF OF AK TROUGH.  THE IMPULSE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN CA TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND REACHING WRN WY EARLY SUNDAY.  AT LOWER
LEVELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW APPROX 175 MILES WNW OF EUREKA
SHOULD REFORM E OF THE NRN SIERRA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE
SNAKE RVR VLY THIS EVENING.

IN THE EAST...MAIN COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY UPR LOW
APPEARS TO BE ENTERING SRN WV ATTM.  THE COLD POCKET SHOULD SHIFT E
TO OFF THE DELMARVA CST BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS E
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.

...NRN/CNTRL CA...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WNW TO
ESE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF CA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY
YIELD LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH FEW SPOTS OF THUNDER ALONG FRONTAL
BAND AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW MINUS 25C.  COUPLED
WITH 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET...THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

IN THE WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT...CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST
THAT A SECONDARY AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS LIKELY WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SAME REGION LATER IN THE DAY.  SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC AREA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE
POCKETS OF MODERATE SURFACE HEATING /MARCH SUN/ WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
CONTINUED MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.  IN ADDITION...CURRENT DATA
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RECYCLED FROM PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL MAINTAIN
AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50. THESE
FACTORS MAY BOOST SBCAPE LOCALLY TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN SACRAMENTO VLY...WITH VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG LIKELY ALONG THE
NRN CA CST.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT S OF THE MOST CONVECTIVELY-
FAVORED AREA IN CA BY MIDDAY.  BUT SUFFICIENT /50 KT/ WLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST AT MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF CA AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...EXPECTED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN AN
OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED SLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NRN SACRAMENTO VLY.  THUS...SETUP COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL.  THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET AS THE LOWER LEVELS COOL
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND ALOFT.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...
120M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS THE NRN SIERRA AND NRN GRT BASIN
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.  THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN CA AS IT
REDEVELOPS E OF THE SIERRA BY MIDDAY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
UPR IMPULSE WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE STRONG LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT.  NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF
STRONG /60+ KT SW FLOW AT 500 MB/ BACKGROUND WIND FIELD WITH
ADVANCING BAND OF FORCED ASCENT MAY YIELD A LINE OF
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ACROSS NRN
NV/NW UT AND THE SNAKE RVR VLY OF ID FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...SRN WV TO ATLANTIC CST...
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDER
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET TRACKING E TOWARD THE
TIDEWATER REGION LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2006