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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251630
SWODY1
SPC AC 251629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2006

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
CA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN NV ..SRN ID AND NWRN UT...

SYNOPSIS

VIGOROUS TROUGH/VORT MAX APPROACHING NRN CA/SRN OR BORDER AREA ATTM
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD REACHING SERN OR/NV BORDER AREA BY 00Z
AND INTO WRN WY BY 12Z SUN. COLD FRONT AT 16Z CROSSING NRN/CENTRAL
SIERRAS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NRN NV.  80-90KT 500MB JET NOW MOVING INLAND CENTRAL CA
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL NV DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
ASCENT SPREADING EWD TO N OF JET AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS NRN CA SWD TO
AROUND 38N OR VICINITY SFO AREA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW WEST OF SIERRAS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR POTENTIAL OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THRU THE AFTERNOON OR UNTIL
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA.  TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.  HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.

LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS.  MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE E SIDE OF SAC VALLEY
WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z AS VEERING FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN WAKE OF TROUGH MOVING E OF AREA.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING NRN NV WILL
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS.  VERY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS VIGOROUS TROUGH  AND MID LEVEL JET DRIVES
EWD ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS IN GUSTS TO NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED THE STRONG
ASCENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA.  THUS COMBINATION OF
GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WILL PUSH GUSTS TO POTENTIALLY
ABOVE 50KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN NV AND ADJACENT
BORDER AREAS OF ID THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN ID AND NRN UT AFTER
OOZ.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/25/2006