[SWODY1] {Spam?} SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250537
SWODY1
SPC AC 250535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND NORTHWEST UTAH...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
WRN STATES THIS PERIOD AS SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPS
INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC...ACROSS NRN CA TODAY...AND THEN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE... EXTENSIVE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD TO CNTRL CANADA WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREAS WHILE OH VALLEY
COLD CORE LOW DRIFTS SEWD OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

WHILE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW IN THE EAST...LARGER TSTM AREA AND MORE
LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.

...NRN CA...
PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS NRN CA COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG EWD
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE DAY.
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
COULD LOCALLY BOOST MUCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500 J/KG IN THE NRN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
THIS AREA WILL BE TOPPED BY 40-50KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE UNTIL INSTABILITY AND STORMS WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 90-120M PER 12H WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND DRIVE A
STRONG FRONTAL BAND EAST INTO NRN NEVADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A
LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...FROM
SWRN ID TO CNTRL NV...BY 21Z. INSTABILITY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A DRY
AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE OF FORCED ASCENT.
INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAPID COLD POOL
MOTION AND EXPECT OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE
SQUALL LINE AS IT SPREAD EAST ACROSS NRN NV AND NWRN UT FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2006