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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231858
SWODY1
SPC AC 231856

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA....

...FLORIDA...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN STRONGER POLAR STREAM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SHEARED IN CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH CONTRIBUTED
TO LARGE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...NOW APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG QUASI
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED MOISTURE RETURN IS ONGOING.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH FURTHER HEATING.

BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WEAK BUT VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. 
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND HODOGRAPHS ALONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SURFACE
WINDS MAINTAIN A STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...COULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTED INITIATION OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PROVIDES
POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  IF THIS
OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE AS DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ENHANCES EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS.

..KERR.. 03/23/2006